ALV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALV - Autoliv, Inc.
$115.43
0.58 (0.51%)
▲
5d:
-4.23%
30d:
-2.93%
90d:
-7.97%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 17, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$185.16
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$114.97
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALV is currently trading at $115.43, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $112.33 to $120.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALV is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $114.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $132.18 (+15.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALV is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $114.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $132.18 (+15.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$112.33 -
$120.11
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($132.18)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$112.33 -
$120.11
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$114.11
Resistance Level
$123.14
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.61
Wall Street Target
$132.18
(+15.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.2%
Profit Margin
6.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$112.90
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$110.98
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$109.09
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$114.61
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 14.0%)
$390.26
(+240%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 14.0%)
$170.00
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 14.0%)
$144.50
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.29
Bull Case
$170.65
(+49%)
Analyst growth 28.6%, PE expands to 14.3
Base Case
$155.13
(+35%)
Market implied 28.6%, PE stable at 13.0
Bear Case
$82.04
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$120.66
(+5.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 2:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Franz-Josef Kortuem
SELL
8300 shares
2026-02-26
Magnus Jarlegren
SELL
1598 shares
2026-02-25
Christian Swahn
SELL
1478 shares
2026-02-24
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