ARLO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARLO - Arlo Technologies, Inc.
$12.71
0.07 (0.55%)
▲
5d:
-14.7%
30d:
-12.41%
90d:
+13.18%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
ARLO is down 14.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $15 2026-07-17 with 142 OI. Call ratio: 93% View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ARLO is down 14.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ARLO is down 14.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.86
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.44
17.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARLO is currently trading at $12.71, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.63 to $14.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.2) compared to its historical average (16.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.75 (+71.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.75 (+71.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.63 -
$14.87
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ARLO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 71.1% below Wall St target ($21.75)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -14.7% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.63 -
$14.87
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.45
Resistance Level
$16.89
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.24
Wall Street Target
$21.75
(+71.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.3%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 16.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.95
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$11.23
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$10.56
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$12.76
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 16.4%)
$33.34
(+162%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 16.4%)
$20.03
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 16.4%)
$17.02
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (46x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.28
Bull Case
$28.49
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 50.9
Base Case
$25.90
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 46.3
Bear Case
$8.81
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.2 to 16.0
Stabilization Target:
$15.36
(+20.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 2:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kurtis Joseph Binder
SELL
25000 shares
2026-04-17
Kurtis Joseph Binder
SELL
25000 shares
2026-04-06
Kurtis Joseph Binder
SELL
179419 shares
2026-03-12
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Advanced ARLO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARLO price and gamma walls.
