ARLO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARLO - Arlo Technologies, Inc.
$12.98
-0.57 (-4.21%)
▼
5d:
+4.93%
30d:
-2.92%
90d:
-8.01%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARLO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARLO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.12
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.60
16.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARLO is currently trading at $12.98, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.60 to $13.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.1) compared to its historical average (15.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.29, while resistance sits at $14.01. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: ARLO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.40 (+64.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.29, while resistance sits at $14.01. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: ARLO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.40 (+64.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$12.60 -
$13.31
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 64.9% below Wall St target ($21.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.60 -
$13.31
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.29
Resistance Level
$14.01
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.14
Wall Street Target
$21.40
(+64.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.3%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 15.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.33
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$11.71
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$11.13
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$12.96
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.6%)
$35.01
(+170%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: 17.6%)
$21.12
(+63%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 17.6%)
$17.95
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 48.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.28
Bull Case
$29.81
(+130%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 53.2
Base Case
$27.10
(+109%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 48.4
Bear Case
$9.21
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 41.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.1 to 15.3
Stabilization Target:
$15.12
(+16.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 10:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
19
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kurtis Joseph Binder
SELL
25000 shares
2026-04-17
Kurtis Joseph Binder
SELL
25000 shares
2026-04-06
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SELL
179419 shares
2026-03-12
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARLO price and gamma walls.
