DORM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DORM - Dorman Products, Inc. New
$115.73
-0.43 (-0.37%)
▼
5d:
-4.36%
30d:
+4.58%
90d:
-10.47%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DORM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DORM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$179.29
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$111.32
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DORM is currently trading at $115.73, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $108.41 to $118.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.4) is in line with its historical norms (12.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DORM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $105.25, while resistance sits at $127.39.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $152.25 (+31.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DORM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $105.25, while resistance sits at $127.39.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $152.25 (+31.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$108.41 -
$118.88
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.1% below Wall St target ($152.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$108.41 -
$118.88
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$105.25
Resistance Level
$127.39
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.40
Wall Street Target
$152.25
(+31.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-23.5%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 12.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$115.35
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$114.54
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$113.74
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$116.47
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 13.2%)
$299.62
(+158%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 13.2%)
$168.37
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: 13.2%)
$143.11
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.21
Bull Case
$199.90
(+72%)
Analyst growth 50.8%, PE expands to 21.3
Base Case
$181.73
(+56%)
Market implied 50.8%, PE stable at 19.4
Bear Case
$81.93
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.4 to 12.7
Stabilization Target:
$118.95
(+2.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 2:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DORM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Donna M Long
SELL
947 shares
2026-03-12
Donna M Long
SELL
812 shares
2026-01-02
John Mcknight
SELL
2000 shares
2025-12-12
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