GEO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GEO - The GEO Group, Inc.
$22.92
-0.47 (-2.01%)
▼
5d:
+5.33%
30d:
+26.21%
90d:
+61.29%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: GEO is 8.6% above its trading range ($21.11). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: GEO is 8.6% above its trading range ($21.11). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.31
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GEO is currently trading at $22.92, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.57 to $21.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 13.8) compared to its historical average (10.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEO is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GEO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.50 (+28.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEO is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GEO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.50 (+28.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$17.57 -
$21.11
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GEO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.6% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.7% below Wall St target ($29.50)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 8.0% growth expectation is conservative given 106% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.57 -
$21.11
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.30
Resistance Level
$23.43
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.78
Wall Street Target
$29.50
(+28.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
106.5%
Profit Margin
10.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.0% premium
PE vs Historical
13.8 vs 10.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.75
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$26.73
(+17%)
3-Year Target
$28.87
(+26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$22.84
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 36.3%)
$93.03
(+306%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.8, Growth: 36.3%)
$58.08
(+153%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 36.3%)
$45.94
(+101%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.97
Bull Case
$21.72
(-5%)
Analyst growth -15.6%, PE expands to 13.1
Base Case
$19.75
(-14%)
Market implied -15.6%, PE stable at 11.9
Bear Case
$15.91
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 12:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GEO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scott Michael Kernan
SELL
6633 shares
2026-03-04
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