GEO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GEO - The GEO Group, Inc.
$30.25
-0.08 (-0.26%)
▼
5d:
+3.14%
30d:
+29.38%
90d:
+74.55%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GEO trades at premium valuation expecting 14.8% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: GEO trades at premium valuation expecting 14.8% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.87
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.13
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GEO is currently trading at $30.25, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.33 to $29.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.2) compared to its historical average (12.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 14.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$24.33 -
$29.84
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
Protect Your Profits
GEO is technically overbought (RSI 73). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($32.00)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 14.8% growth expectation is conservative given 106% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.33 -
$29.84
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.36
Resistance Level
$27.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.19
Wall Street Target
$32.00
(+5.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
106.5%
Profit Margin
10.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+14.8% premium
PE vs Historical
18.2 vs 12.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+14.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.73
(+15%)
2-Year Target
$39.87
(+32%)
3-Year Target
$45.77
(+51%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$30.20
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 36.3%)
$91.80
(+204%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.2, Growth: 36.3%)
$76.66
(+153%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 36.3%)
$50.58
(+67%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 15.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.97
Bull Case
$28.17
(-7%)
Analyst growth -15.6%, PE expands to 16.9
Base Case
$25.61
(-15%)
Market implied -15.6%, PE stable at 15.4
Bear Case
$20.62
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GEO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scott Michael Kernan
SELL
6633 shares
2026-03-04
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