HLLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLLY - Holley Inc.
$2.40
-0.05 (-2.04%)
▼
5d:
+1.69%
30d:
-8.4%
90d:
-23.32%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HLLY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HLLY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.12
Based on 13.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.80
36.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLLY is currently trading at $2.40, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.44 to $2.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.2) compared to its historical average (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 200% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLLY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.67 (+94.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLLY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.67 (+94.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$2.44 -
$2.71
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 94.4% below Wall St target ($4.67)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2.44 -
$2.71
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.50
Resistance Level
$3.05
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.15
Wall Street Target
$4.67
(+94.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
200.0%
Profit Margin
3.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.2 vs 8.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.16
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$1.94
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$1.75
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→9)
$2.45
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 21.9%)
$15.38
(+541%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.2, Growth: 21.9%)
$4.34
(+81%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.2, Growth: 21.9%)
$3.69
(+54%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.20
Bull Case
$5.26
(+119%)
Analyst growth 95.0%, PE expands to 13.5
Base Case
$4.78
(+99%)
Market implied 95.0%, PE stable at 12.3
Bear Case
$1.67
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.2 to 8.6
Stabilization Target:
$3.35
(+39.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+39.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 8:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HLLY price and gamma walls.
