HLLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLLY - Holley Inc.
$2.72
0.03 (1.12%)
▲
5d:
+7.51%
30d:
-12.26%
90d:
-34.93%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLLY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -9.0% annual earnings decline despite 200% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLLY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -9.0% annual earnings decline despite 200% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.70
Based on 13.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.16
34.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLLY is currently trading at $2.72, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.92 to $3.35. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.0) compared to its historical average (9.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 200% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLLY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $2.51, while resistance sits at $3.31.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.67 (+71.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLLY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $2.51, while resistance sits at $3.31.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.67 (+71.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$2.92 -
$3.35
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 71.6% below Wall St target ($4.67)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2.92 -
$3.35
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.51
Resistance Level
$3.31
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.97
Wall Street Target
$4.67
(+71.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
200.0%
Profit Margin
3.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.0 vs 9.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.48
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$2.25
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$2.05
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$2.73
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 22.5%)
$15.81
(+481%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.0, Growth: 22.5%)
$5.00
(+84%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 22.5%)
$4.25
(+56%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.20
Bull Case
$5.91
(+117%)
Analyst growth 95.0%, PE expands to 15.2
Base Case
$5.37
(+98%)
Market implied 95.0%, PE stable at 13.8
Bear Case
$1.87
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.0 to 9.3
Stabilization Target:
$3.63
(+33.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 8:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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