LPX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LPX - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.
$70.44
0.58 (0.83%)
▲
5d:
-3.48%
30d:
-8.48%
90d:
-20.73%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
LPX is down 7.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $95 2026-06-18 with 11 OI. Call ratio: 66% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LPX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: LPX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$150.47
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$93.43
24.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LPX is currently trading at $70.44, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.17 to $75.49. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.3) is in line with its historical norms (20.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $66.68, while resistance sits at $76.50.
Market Sentiment: LPX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.50 (+29.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $66.68, while resistance sits at $76.50.
Market Sentiment: LPX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.50 (+29.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$71.17 -
$75.49
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LPX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.9% below Wall St target ($91.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$71.17 -
$75.49
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$66.68
Resistance Level
$76.50
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.32
Wall Street Target
$91.50
(+29.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-20.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-70.3%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.3 vs 20.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$68.33
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$66.28
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$64.29
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→20)
$70.52
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 97.6%)
$286.72
(+307%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.3, Growth: 97.6%)
$237.73
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: 97.6%)
$202.07
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 38.76 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.82
Bull Case
$85.06
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 40.7
Base Case
$70.44
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 38.8
Bear Case
$53.89
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 34.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.3 to 20.1
Stabilization Target:
$77.27
(+9.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 7:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LPX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lizanne M Bruce
SELL
1300 shares
2026-03-10
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-27
F Nicholas Grasberger I…
BUY
20000 shares
2026-02-19
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