MPAA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPAA - Motorcar Parts of America, Inc.
$11.43
0.24 (2.14%)
▲
5d:
-0.35%
30d:
+2.24%
90d:
+20.06%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 08, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPAA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPAA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.68
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.46
15.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPAA is currently trading at $11.43, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.06 to $11.61. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.3) is in line with its historical norms (7.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPAA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.01, while resistance sits at $12.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.33 (+63.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPAA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.01, while resistance sits at $12.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.33 (+63.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$11.06 -
$11.61
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 63.8% below Wall St target ($18.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.06 -
$11.61
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.32
(11.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.01
Resistance Level
$12.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.34
Wall Street Target
$18.33
(+63.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.2%
Profit Margin
0.2%
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.19
(0%)
2-Year Target
$11.19
(0%)
3-Year Target
$11.19
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.13
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 103.3%)
$113.44
(+914%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: 103.3%)
$37.77
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 103.3%)
$32.10
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 9.29 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.21
Bull Case
$13.51
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 9.8
Base Case
$11.19
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 9.3
Bear Case
$8.56
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 8.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 1:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPAA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
David Bryan
BUY
1000 shares
2026-02-12
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Advanced MPAA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MPAA price and gamma walls.
