MPAA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPAA - Motorcar Parts of America, Inc.
$14.67
-0.37 (-2.46%)
▼
5d:
-1.61%
30d:
+36.97%
90d:
+34.46%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPAA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 17.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPAA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 17.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.91
Based on -14.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.42
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPAA is currently trading at $14.67, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.57 to $15.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.7) compared to its historical average (7.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 17.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPAA is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $10.38, while resistance sits at $15.30.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.67 (+27.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPAA is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $10.38, while resistance sits at $15.30.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.67 (+27.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$11.57 -
$15.46
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
60th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 60th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.2% below Wall St target ($18.67)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 17.2% growth with 9.9% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.57 -
$15.46
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.04
(13.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.38
Resistance Level
$15.30
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.65
Wall Street Target
$18.67
(+27.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.2%
Profit Margin
1.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+17.2% premium
PE vs Historical
12.7 vs 7.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+17.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.19
(+17%)
2-Year Target
$20.15
(+37%)
3-Year Target
$23.62
(+61%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$14.75
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -33.3%)
$18.42
(+26%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: -33.3%)
$10.69
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: -33.3%)
$6.68
(-55%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.62
Bull Case
$30.95
(+111%)
Analyst growth 87.1%, PE expands to 26.7
Base Case
$28.14
(+92%)
Market implied 87.1%, PE stable at 24.3
Bear Case
$10.23
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 1:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPAA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
David Bryan
BUY
1000 shares
2026-02-12
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Advanced MPAA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MPAA price and gamma walls.
