PMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PMT - PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust
$10.50
-0.02 (-0.19%)
▼
5d:
+2.14%
30d:
-12.13%
90d:
-13.58%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PMT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PMT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.97
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.26
26.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PMT is currently trading at $10.50, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.60 to $12.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.6) compared to its historical average (7.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PMT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.79 (+21.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PMT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.79 (+21.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.60 -
$12.11
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.8% below Wall St target ($12.79)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.60 -
$12.11
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.23
Resistance Level
$11.12
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.59
Wall Street Target
$12.79
(+21.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-24.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Profit Margin
21.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 7.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.12
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$9.76
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$9.41
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$10.57
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 29.6%)
$76.29
(+627%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: 29.6%)
$22.85
(+118%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 29.6%)
$19.42
(+85%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.16
Bull Case
$15.90
(+51%)
Analyst growth 37.4%, PE expands to 10.0
Base Case
$14.46
(+38%)
Market implied 37.4%, PE stable at 9.1
Bear Case
$7.15
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 7.4
Stabilization Target:
$11.80
(+12.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 25, 2026 9:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:41 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is PMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Catherine A Lynch
BUY
1451 shares
2026-01-23
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