PZZA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PZZA - Papa John's International Inc
$33.40
0.65 (1.98%)
▲
5d:
-3.83%
30d:
-9.56%
90d:
+1.95%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.4/10
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1 traders called PZZA this week
0% bullish • 1 bearish
0% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PZZA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PZZA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$57.30
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.58
6.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PZZA is currently trading at $33.40, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.48 to $37.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.1) is in line with its historical norms (19.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PZZA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $30.59, while resistance sits at $36.10.
Market Sentiment: PZZA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.36 (+11.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PZZA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $30.59, while resistance sits at $36.10.
Market Sentiment: PZZA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.36 (+11.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$33.48 -
$37.11
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($37.36)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.48 -
$37.11
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.59
Resistance Level
$36.10
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.11
Wall Street Target
$37.36
(+11.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-22.2%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.1 vs 19.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.13
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$32.87
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$32.60
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→20)
$33.44
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 17.9%)
$63.04
(+89%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.1, Growth: 17.9%)
$54.79
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.2, Growth: 17.9%)
$46.57
(+39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.83
Bull Case
$72.05
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 43.4
Base Case
$65.50
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 39.5
Bear Case
$22.27
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.1 to 19.6
Stabilization Target:
$34.25
(+2.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 22, 2026 10:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PZZA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced PZZA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PZZA price and gamma walls.
