SMP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMP - Standard Motor Products
$37.00
-1.54 (-4.00%)
▼
5d:
-8.42%
30d:
+0.6%
90d:
-16.59%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SMP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SMP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$62.01
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.50
3.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMP is currently trading at $37.00, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.74 to $38.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.5) compared to its historical average (8.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 35.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMP is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.23. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.33 (+30.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMP is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.23. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.33 (+30.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$36.74 -
$38.85
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 30.6% below Wall St target ($48.33)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.4% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.74 -
$38.85
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.23
Resistance Level
$40.47
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.49
Wall Street Target
$48.33
(+30.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
35.6%
Profit Margin
2.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.5 vs 8.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.45
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$33.96
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$32.53
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$36.92
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 12.3%)
$154.30
(+317%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: 12.3%)
$52.36
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: 12.3%)
$44.51
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.72
Bull Case
$56.30
(+52%)
Analyst growth 32.8%, PE expands to 11.4
Base Case
$51.18
(+38%)
Market implied 32.8%, PE stable at 10.4
Bear Case
$26.21
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.5 to 8.5
Stabilization Target:
$41.99
(+13.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 7:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:49 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ray Nicholas
SELL
9093 shares
2025-12-11
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