SMP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMP - Standard Motor Products
$37.93
-0.61 (-1.58%)
▼
5d:
-4.6%
30d:
-2.52%
90d:
+6.6%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SMP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SMP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.28
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.05
0.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMP is currently trading at $37.93, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.53 to $39.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.7) is in line with its historical norms (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 35.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMP is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.33 (+27.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMP is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.33 (+27.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$38.53 -
$39.77
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.4% below Wall St target ($48.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.53 -
$39.77
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.94
Resistance Level
$42.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.68
Wall Street Target
$48.33
(+27.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
35.6%
Profit Margin
2.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.7 vs 8.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.87
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$35.84
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$34.83
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$38.11
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.3%)
$152.27
(+301%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.7, Growth: 12.3%)
$53.68
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 12.3%)
$45.63
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.72
Bull Case
$56.30
(+48%)
Analyst growth 32.8%, PE expands to 11.4
Base Case
$51.18
(+35%)
Market implied 32.8%, PE stable at 10.4
Bear Case
$26.21
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.7 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$41.50
(+9.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 10:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:31 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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