TREX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TREX - Trex Company, Inc.
$38.18
0.74 (1.98%)
▲
5d:
-3.34%
30d:
-10.73%
90d:
-9.85%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TREX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TREX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.53
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.96
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TREX is currently trading at $38.18, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.30 to $41.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.6) is in line with its historical norms (22.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.48, while resistance sits at $44.45.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.21 (+26.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.48, while resistance sits at $44.45.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.21 (+26.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$38.30 -
$41.84
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.3% below Wall St target ($48.21)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.30 -
$41.84
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.48
Resistance Level
$44.45
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.59
Wall Street Target
$48.21
(+26.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.6%
Profit Margin
16.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.6 vs 22.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.00
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$35.85
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$34.74
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→23)
$38.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 10.6%)
$55.37
(+45%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.6, Growth: 10.6%)
$51.59
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 10.6%)
$43.85
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.80
Bull Case
$43.72
(+17%)
Analyst growth 3.0%, PE expands to 23.6
Base Case
$39.75
(+6%)
Market implied 3.0%, PE stable at 21.4
Bear Case
$26.24
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.6 to 22.6
Stabilization Target:
$41.90
(+9.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 5:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TREX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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