TREX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TREX - Trex Company, Inc.
$48.47
-0.22 (-0.45%)
▼
5d:
-3.02%
30d:
+16.54%
90d:
+32.54%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TREX is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: TREX is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$60.09
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TREX is currently trading at $48.47, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.98 to $47.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 26.1) compared to its historical average (22.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TREX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TREX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$40.98 -
$47.91
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($48.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.98 -
$47.91
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.19
Resistance Level
$44.60
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.13
Wall Street Target
$48.50
(+0.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.6%
Profit Margin
16.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.6% premium
PE vs Historical
26.1 vs 22.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.70
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$53.03
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$55.47
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$48.41
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.1, Growth: 10.6%)
$65.54
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.6%)
$54.64
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 10.6%)
$46.44
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.80
Bull Case
$55.20
(+14%)
Analyst growth 3.1%, PE expands to 29.8
Base Case
$50.19
(+4%)
Market implied 3.1%, PE stable at 27.1
Bear Case
$33.11
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 8:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TREX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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