AAON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAON - Aaon Inc
$129.25
30.95 (31.49%)
▲
5d:
+38.52%
30d:
+47.93%
90d:
+39.14%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
AAON is down 6.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $110 2026-07-17 with 248 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: AAON is 27.5% above its trading range ($101.37). Market expects 4.0% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: AAON is 27.5% above its trading range ($101.37). Market expects 4.0% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$144.20
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$89.54
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAON is currently trading at $129.25, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $82.90 to $101.37. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 43.6) compared to its historical average (38.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $85.63, while resistance sits at $149.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 31.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: AAON has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $85.63, while resistance sits at $149.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 31.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: AAON has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$82.90 -
$101.37
Company Quality Score
40/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
AAON is technically overbought (RSI 79). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+27.5% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+31.5%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($122.75)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to 27.5% overvaluation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$82.90 -
$101.37
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$85.63
Resistance Level
$149.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
43.64
Wall Street Target
$122.75
(-5.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.1%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.0% premium
PE vs Historical
43.6 vs 38.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$134.42
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$139.80
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$145.39
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 44→39)
PE COMPRESSION
$129.28
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 43.6, Growth: 49.3%)
$430.09
(+233%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 49.3%)
$216.25
(+67%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 49.3%)
$183.81
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (44x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 49.02 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.64
Bull Case
$156.07
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 51.5
Base Case
$129.25
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 49.0
Bear Case
$98.88
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 44.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 08, 2026 7:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:09 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rebecca Thompson
SELL
7292 shares
2026-04-23
Rebecca Thompson
SELL
2287 shares
2026-04-21
Casey Kidwell
SELL
5225 shares
2026-03-12
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAON price and gamma walls.
