AAON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAON - Aaon Inc
$132.73
-2.77 (-2.04%)
▼
5d:
-6.33%
30d:
+41.23%
90d:
+29.14%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
AAON is down 4.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $160 2026-07-17 with 654 OI. Call ratio: 94% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AAON is 13.0% above its trading range ($117.50). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AAON is 13.0% above its trading range ($117.50). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$160.27
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$99.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAON is currently trading at $132.72, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $82.80 to $117.50. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 41.2) is in line with its historical norms (39.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $88.49, while resistance sits at $149.00.
Market Sentiment: AAON has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $88.49, while resistance sits at $149.00.
Market Sentiment: AAON has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$82.80 -
$117.50
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AAON? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+13.0% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($143.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.3%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$82.80 -
$117.50
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$88.49
Resistance Level
$149.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
41.16
Wall Street Target
$143.50
(+5.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.1%
Profit Margin
7.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
41.2 vs 39.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$137.93
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$140.41
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$142.94
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 41→39)
PE COMPRESSION
$135.79
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 41.2, Growth: 45.7%)
$418.76
(+209%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 45.7%)
$224.55
(+66%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 45.7%)
$190.87
(+41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (73x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (41x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 72.99 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.86
Bull Case
$163.60
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 76.6
Base Case
$135.49
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 73.0
Bear Case
$103.65
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 65.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 3:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rebecca Thompson
SELL
7292 shares
2026-04-23
Rebecca Thompson
SELL
2287 shares
2026-04-21
Casey Kidwell
SELL
5225 shares
2026-03-12
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Advanced AAON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAON price and gamma walls.
