Is AAON stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, AAON is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: AAON shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of AAON stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AAON to be between $93.33 and $101.95. The current price is $92.40.

What is the analyst price target for AAON?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AAON is $122.75. This implies a potential upside of 27.9% from current levels.

AAON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AAON - Aaon Inc

AIR-COND & WARM AIR HEATG EQUIP & COMM & INDL REFRIG EQUIP

$92.40

-3.57 (-3.72%) ▼

5d: -6.56%

30d: -1.04%

90d: +1.47%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

Protect Your AAON Gains

Analysis Updated: Mar 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Apr 30, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

AAON is down 6.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $110 2026-04-17 with 112 OI. Call ratio: 83% View Scanner →

Strength: 6.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AAON shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$144.20

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$89.54

Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AAON is currently trading at $92.40, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $93.33 to $101.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 32.4) compared to its historical average (45.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $91.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $122.75 (+27.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Fair Price Range $93.33 - $101.95

Company Quality Score 47/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 74.8%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.7%)
BULLISH: Trading 27.9% below Wall St target ($122.75)
CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.6% 5-day decline

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $93.33 - $101.95

Current vs Fair Value SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $91.43

Resistance Level $112.94

Current Trend Sideways

Technical data as of Mar 5, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 32.40

Wall Street Target $122.75 (+27.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 16.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -68.6%

Profit Margin 7.5%

Valuation Discount vs History -10.4% cheaper

PE vs Historical 32.4 vs 45.1 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -10.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $86.37 (-10%)

2-Year Target $77.74 (-19%)

3-Year Target $69.96 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 32→45) $97.38 (+2%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 32.4, Growth: 48.5%) $314.57 (+228%)

Base: (SPY PE: 22.6, Growth: 48.5%) $219.32 (+129%)

Bear: (PE: 19.2, Growth: 48.5%) $186.42 (+94%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (51x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (32x PE) as earnings recover.

Forward PE: 51.02 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.98

Bull Case $122.20 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 53.6

Base Case $101.20 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 51.0

Bear Case $77.42 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 45.9

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 32.4 to 45.1

Stabilization Target: $133.59 (+39.2%)

PE Expansion Potential: +39.2%

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Last updated: March 06, 2026 6:17 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:17 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Stephen E Wakefield BUY 4141 shares 2025-12-12

Stephen E Wakefield BUY 1000 shares 2025-12-11

Gary D Fields SELL 3553 shares 2025-11-12

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