AAON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAON - Aaon Inc
$107.62
-8.80 (-7.56%)
▼
5d:
-19.24%
30d:
-25.0%
90d:
+28.66%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AAON is down 19.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AAON is down 19.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$160.27
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$99.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAON is currently trading at $107.62, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $123.72 to $141.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 32.7) compared to its historical average (39.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 37.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $105.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (21th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $143.50 (+33.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $105.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (21th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $143.50 (+33.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$123.72 -
$141.04
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
21th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AAON? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 21th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-7.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 33.3% below Wall St target ($143.50)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -19.2% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$123.72 -
$141.04
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$12.53
(11.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$105.22
Resistance Level
$139.87
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.69
Wall Street Target
$143.50
(+33.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.1%
Profit Margin
7.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
32.7 vs 39.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$101.16
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$95.09
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$89.39
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33→39)
$107.73
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.7, Growth: 45.7%)
$332.62
(+209%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 45.7%)
$221.60
(+106%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 45.7%)
$188.36
(+75%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (56x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (33x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 55.87 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.93
Bull Case
$129.95
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 58.7
Base Case
$107.62
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 55.9
Bear Case
$82.33
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 50.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 32.7 to 39.4
Stabilization Target:
$129.70
(+20.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 3:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
7292 shares
2026-04-23
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SELL
2287 shares
2026-04-21
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5225 shares
2026-03-12
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Advanced AAON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAON price and gamma walls.
